Lies, damned lies and statistics

My mathematician husband often likes to use mathematics against me. For instance, he often says things like: I’m much more likely to die in a car crash than an earthquake or volcanic eruption.

So what are the statistics? According to the Auckland Regional Council civil defence management page, there’s a 5% chance over any 50 year period of the Auckland volcanic field erupting. This seems quite high to me. By comparison, I have a 0.5% chance of dying in a car crash over the next 50 years, assuming a 1 in 10,000 rate per year. Of course I may not die in a volcanic eruption but quite frankly, I’d rather not live through one either.

Daniel’s teacher has put in a referral for him to be assessed by a speech therapist. The school is very confident he’ll qualify for support because his speech is still very difficult to understand. Some of the things he says:

bird – bord
elephant – elephinet
spider – sider
vase – base
school – sool

I was at the supermarket with Elizabeth this week and someone walked past with a child and the child pointed at Elizabeth and said “baby”. Elizabeth was not happy and responded with “I not a baby, I Elizabeth”.


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7 responses to “Lies, damned lies and statistics”

  1. Anonymous Avatar

    How insulting to be called a baby!! Hope Elizabeth gets over it without too much emotional damage:) Good luck with Daniel's speech therapist. Love, B

  2. Frances Avatar

    I love the story about Elizabeth. That child could've been my past self – my first word was baby and I would say it all day long, even pointing to kids who were older than me!

  3. Anonymous Avatar

    Rachel, I assume Daniel has been tested for deafness?

  4. Rachel Avatar

    Actually, no. His ears were checked by the GP but that's it. The hearing test teams visit kindergartens around New Zealand and when they visited his kindergarten in Christchurch, Daniel could not understand the instructions so they put him down to test again on the next visit. By the time the next visit came around, we had left the city. Then he spent a few months at one kindergarten in Auckland and another few months at another kindergarten, so he fell through the cracks. We are hoping the speech therapist can tell us where to take him for a proper test now that he's not at kindergarten.

  5. Rachel Avatar

    Oh that's cute. I wonder whether you offended any toddler-wannabes?

  6. Rachel Avatar

    Thanks. Will keep you posted.

  7. Anonymous Avatar

    Your G.P. should be able to refer you to a specialist who can then supervise all testing.

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