Predicting earthquakes

The front page of our newspaper yesterday read: “Big quake risk put at 23%”. It created a bit of reserved panic around Christchurch with the Mayor and geologists from around the world coming out to reassure us.  I heard one Aussie geologist state that it simply means there’s a 75% chance there won’t be a big quake. One thing is certain, September’s quake tickled the fault lines beneath Canterbury waking them from their slumber. Christchurch will be a shaky place for the next few years.

It must be difficult for seismologists assessing earthquake risk. They can’t make predictions, all they can do is determine probabilities. I’m sure they don’t want to freak us out but at the same time, they need to be realistic especially with news out of Italy this week. Apparently 6 Italian seismologists are to be tried for manslaughter for reassuring the people of L’Aquila prior to an earthquake that killed 306.

No-one can predict earthquakes. All they can do is provide us with a percentage probability. If you live in a high-risk area you need to be prepared. At all times.